BACKGROUND

History depicts earthquakes as one of the most catastrophic naturally occurring incident, which have always been devastating, especially when it is of an enormous magnitude. Considering the fact that the earthquake strikes a region lying in the seismic belt, and that the epicenter lies across a mountain range, the consequences would surely be disastrous, beyond expectation. Such an incident occurred on the 8th of October, 2005 in the northern part of Pakistan. The tremors exceeding the reading of 7.6 on the Richter scale clearly indicate the destruction accompanying this earthquake. The reciprocating factor in the earthquakes is the intensity, through which the total loss may be approximated, as it is directly proportional to the eruption created. The span of the earthquake lasted a few months as around 1,900 aftershocks were recorded (till 31st May, 2006) and a total of 30,000 square kilometers of area were disrupted as an aftermath of this natural disaster. A rapid assessment of damages, occurring to the physical and social capital, estimated a loss of about 73,338 human lives, injuring 128,304 people across the four affected districts of AJ&K and five of NWFP. Over 600,000 houses were destroyed, almost all the educational and governance infrastructure was damaged or wiped out, hospitals were demolished and the public infrastructure, particularly the roads, power facilities and telecommunication infrastructure were severely affected. ERRA was established by the Government of Pakistan (GoP), within days of the earthquake (24th October, 2005), with the purpose to “Build Back Better”. The aim of this autonomous government authority was to coordinate the reconstruction and rehabilitation activities in the earthquake affected areas. The focus of ERRA at the time of its establishment has evolved from the immediate rescue and relief operations to long-term reconstruction and rehabilitation, for a sustainable environment in order to facilitate the affected population of AJ&K and NWFP. While progress on reconstruction and rehabilitation is in line with expected targets, ERRA is also striving to enhance its institutional strengthens through formulation of work plans and implementation mechanisms; development of standard procedures; capacity building interventions encompassing ERRA and its affiliates; consolidation of partnerships with national and international donors to materialize their pledges of assistance. The M&E Wing of ERRA designs and implements the central M&E system, through the devised Earthquake Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (EMEF). Following the „programme logic model?, monitoring is conducted for inputs, outputs, outcomes and impacts of ERRA specific interventions. The regular monitoring is applied in quantifying the quality of the programmes, assessment of the progress, identification of goals and achievements along with the challenges being faced. Technical monitoring (input and output) is conducted by the field based Construction Monitoring Teams (CMTs) and the field based Social Survey Teams (SSTs) carry out the social monitoring (outcome and impact).

While technical monitoring provides for the appropriateness, relevance, quality, and compliance related elements, the social monitoring reports inform the management regarding extension of services as a result of completed facilities, and changes in peoples? lives. To maintain the authenticity, the social surveys follow an empirically robust survey methodology and sampling framework. Regular data collection is carried-out according to statistically sturdy approved scale of monitoring and information gathering. The social impact assessment report is a measuring document, produced by ERRA M&E Wing, as a part of the aforementioned effort. It is purely based on the social impact assessment survey conducted at the household level. Following the devised sampling and survey framework, 1,350 households were selected from 270 villages across the nine ERRA-served districts of AJ&K (Bagh, Muzaffarabad, Neelum, and Poonch) and NWFP (Abbottabad, Battagram, Kohistan, Mansehra and Shangla,). The key sectors have been clustered into three groups: Direct Outreach covering rural housing, social protection, livelihoods; Social Services constituting education, health, WatSan; Public Infrastructure comprising transport, power and telecommunication. The cross-cutting themes of gender, disaster risk reduction and environmental safeguards are covered within individual sectors, as applicable. The social impacts of ERRA-specific interventions are reported and analyzed for the above mentioned social clusters followed by conclusions and recommendations. Learning and experiences emerging from social impact assessment report are to form knowledge base for ERRA management and its stakeholders to gauge the trends and changes in peoples? lives and outline mid-course corrections. The report is intended to be shared with ERRA?s national and international partners in the effort of reconstruction and rehabilitation. This report is expected to improve the decision-making, allowing a rectification of the short-comings in any programmes and enhancing their effectiveness.

Based on M&E sampling tools and techniques followed by international development agencies, an empirically robust survey framework was followed. A ninety percent confidence level was maintained to ensure precision and accuracy during the survey. Managed by the M&E Wing SSTs, the survey was conducted at the household level. It captures the changes in the lives of the people and the socio-economic as a result of the overall reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts with specific reference to ERRA. It highlights effects on the identifiable population groups through various interventions, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended. To achieve ninety percent confidence interval, a survey of 1,350 households, spread over nine affected districts was implied. While the unit of survey was “house hold”, the unit of analyses was “district”.

Table 1: Main Features of Survey Districts

(2)

A two-stage cluster sampling methodology was used to select the survey households.
i. In the first stage, 30 villages were chosen in each district using Linear Systematic Sampling (LSS);       
ii. In the second stage, a cluster of five households was chosen in each village using Random Systematic Sampling (RSS).

1.1 Selection of Villages

Thirty villages were selected using LSS with Probability Proportional to Size (PPS), i.e. the probability of selecting any given village was proportional to the size of the village. Use of PPS ensured that larger villages had greater significance in the survey than smaller ones, and thereby simplified calculations made in the analysis stage. The procedure followed was:
i. The villages were sorted by altitude, from low to high;
ii. The cumulative population was calculated using population data from each village and listed in a separate column;
iii. LSS methodology was used to select the villages. The stepping interval was calculated by dividing the total population with the sample size (30). A random number village was chosen in the first stepping interval. This became the first village in the sample, with the remaining 29 chosen by adding stepping intervals.

Five households were chosen from each sampled village. According to the original guidelines for the impact survey, a strictly randomized household sample was to be used, based on a complete list of households in each village. However, due to the resource constraints, the ERRA management adopted a simplified procedure to minimize time requirements while preserving the principle of random selection. This was achieved by selecting households randomly from within each mohalla (neighbourhood), a „sub-division? of the village. Random selection was strictly applied for these mohalla, thereby validating the calculation of confidence levels for the final results.

An integrated survey questionnaire was designed to cover all ERRA priority sectors, i.e. rural housing, livelihood, social protection, education, health, water and sanitation, transport, power and telecommunication. It was reviewed from the cross-cutting lens and field-tested for additional comprehensiveness.

1.4 Database Design and Management

Data entry screens were developed prior to data collection using Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. This facilitated data entry and averted the risk of errors because of delayed/non-entry. It is a critical aspect of ensuring the quality of data. Standard principles of data entry (ensuring data entry screens matched the questionnaire format); data validation and cleaning (compilation sheets, permissible value tests, etc.) and data storage (for raw data, cleaned data, processed data, etc) were applied.

This section details the effects of the October 2005 earthquake on each of the nine surveyed districts. In each case, general figures for damaged houses, schools and other infrastructure are presented (where available). These statistics are drawn from the previous surveys and reports, e.g. the Asian Development Bank (ADB)/World Bank (WB) damage assessment report.2 they are followed by the effects of the earthquake particularly on the households included in the survey. Besides the reported damage, respondents were asked about the damage to their houses, sources of livelihood and access to facilities, markets, etc. Studying the effects of the earthquake 2005 is crucial, both to understand the threats posed by such disasters (thereby facilitating disaster prevention and management), and to provide a baseline against which to measure the impact of ERRA interventions.
Pakistan 2005 Earthquake Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment Report. (ADB and World Bank, Islamabad, November 2005).

2.1 Muzaffarabad and Neelum

injuries and 65 with minor injuries. Findings for physical damage and loss of livelihoods are given in Table 2.

Table 2: Damage Suffered by Households Surveyed in Districts of Muzaffarabad and Neelum

There was widespread damage to the private housing in District Mansehra. According to figures provided by the district government as many as 108,283 (seventy-one percent) houses were completely damaged or destroyed and 34,001 (twenty-two percent) were partially damaged3. A total of 1,559 educational institutions in both rural and urban areas were either destroyed or partially damaged while 43 health facilities were completely destroyed and 11 were partially damaged. Damage to physical assets and livelihoods was more extensive, as seen in table 7.

Table 7: Damage to Households Surveyed in District Mansehra

3. SOCIAL IMPACTS OF DIRECT OUTREACH INTERVENTIONS

ERRA direct outreach interventions encompass three sectors: rural housing, livelihood generation, and social protection. Rural housing interventions fulfill the basic need among the population; assistance provided through cash grants enables people to engage in house reconstruction and support their families; social protection provides a safety net for the most vulnerable families. Impact of the rural housing program has prompt visibility whereas interventions taken under the livelihood and social protection have also achieved significant outcome level changes.

3.1 Rural Housing

Rural Housing Reconstruction Programme (RHRP) is aimed to reconstruct the damaged or destroyed houses by applying the techniques devised by ERRA, with a focus on earthquake resistant, owner-driven approach. According to the survey carried out by the Pakistan Army in collaboration with the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) in September 2008, a total of 610,893 houses were either damaged or destroyed. The provision of financial assistance packages in the form of trenched release in four installments, technical and social training of the POs and the communities, and capacity building of the local community to enhance their capability in order to expedite the process of owner-driven reconstruction, are a few components of ERRA rural housing sector. These interventions have demonstrated progressive results, as 463,077 houses have been completed by September 2008. Only 663 out of the total houses (1,350) sampled for the social impact assessment survey were found to be either damaged or destroyed; rest of the buildings received negligible damages. ERRA policies in the RHRP have facilitated the earthquake affected communities through its interventions, at a long-term and sustainable level, through retrofitting and reconstruction of houses, which has introduced a culture of seismically safe construction.
Social impact assessment survey underscores observations pertaining to the positive changes brought in peoples? lives through ERRA rural housing interventions. The elements, including a sense of security, comfort level of the new houses, development of
skilled labor, a culture of responsibility, self-sufficiency of the community, are a few highlights of the following detailed social results.

3.2 Improved Safety Measures and Standards

development and dissemination of Information Education and Communication (IEC)
Material to the communities, including construction guidelines, training curriculum, standard designs, improved local technologies (Dhajji, Bhattar), and quality control measures to test the material.
Utilization of the information provided by ERRA has improved the safety standards in the affected areas, as eighty-eight percent of the surveyed community registered their new houses safe for living, without the fear of destruction in case of future earthquakes. Summary of the feedback during the survey has been highlighted in table 10.

Table 10: Safety due to ERRA interventions

The contradiction occurring in the table, where four percent of the population is feeling less safe than before, is the reflection of the trauma and sufferings which will keep on haunting the people.

3.3 Quality of Improved Housing

The RHRP is expected to provide the communities with a better access to improved seismic resistant houses, with better designs. The comfort of the communities is one of the key indicators that the affected population is expecting as a by-product of ERRA interventions. The promotion of the enhanced designs introduced by ERRA has comforted the population as these are practiced more frequently by the communities.

Comfort of the Community in the New Houses
Eighty-Six percent of the affected respondents considered their new houses comfortable and better equipped. Only four percent of the sampled beneficiaries considered their new houses uncomfortable for living due to extreme weather. The usability of thin hollow blocks, which have a lower coefficient of insulation, is the prominent factor exposing the houses to climatic severities, and making them uncomfortable, i.e. hot in summer and cold in winter.

3.4 Development of Skilled Labor and Human Resource

The awareness campaigns amalgamated with the development of human assets has emerged as a predominant element, contributing in the capacity building of the local community. Technical trainings conducted at all levels, including training for women, have expedited the pace of work, within the communities, creating an opportunity for the community participants to earn their livelihood. Survey results reported that 212 out of the affected beneficiaries (663) received the technical training. The skills learnt through the technical trainings may be positively utilized in incremental household earnings of the communities. The awareness campaigns through electronic and print media have equally enhanced the capacity of the communities, promoting safer house construction methods and implementation of new technologies.

3.5 Culture of Responsibility

Owner-driven approach is one of the major aspects covered in the rural housing strategy. The freedom to construct houses as per owner’s convenience in terms of pace of construction and house layouts, by utilizing the skills developed through technical trainings provided by ERRA has expedited the pace of reconstruction in the affected areas. The compliance levels attained during the reconstruction of houses certify the awareness of the communities and the culture of responsibility, with regard to seismic-resistant education. People are more inclined towards the construction of newer houses on the lines defined by ERRA. The percentages of houses constructed as per ERRA design have been arranged in the order of districts in table 12.

Table 12: Compliance Level of the houses

The social impact assessment survey reports that seventy-two percent of the sampled houses constructed in accordance with ERRA standards.
(Source: ERRA)

Abbreviations

HF:                         Hussaini Foundation
ERRA :                   Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Authority

GoP:           Govt. of Pakistan
NWFP:        North West Frontier of Pakistan
AJ&K:         Azad Jammu and Kashmir
EMEF:        Earthquake Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
M&E:          Monitoring and Evaluation
CMT:          Construction Monitoring Team
SST:          Social Survey Team
WatSan:     Water and Sanitation
LSS:          Linear Systematic Sampling
RSS:         Random Systematic Sampling
PPS:         Probability Proportional to Size
ADB:         Asian Development Bank
WB:          World Bank
RHRP:       Rural Housing Reconstruction Program
PPAF:       Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund
PO:          Program Officer
AIT:         Assistance and Inspection Team
IEC:         Information Education and Communication

PROJECTS COMPLETED BY HF IN 2006-2009

Two Room houses

2.            HOUSING PROJECT PHASE II, HF HP-II Aug 2007 – Dec 2008

3.            HOUSING PROJECT PHASE III, GILGIT BALTISTAN

4.            SUMMARY HOUSING PROJECTS

Transitional Residential Colony

In district Kohat a unique idea of its kind is in progress,62 two rooms residential units are designed to accommodate those families who are displaced from their land due to conflict or disaster will be accommodated till they are safely back to their lands.

This project will serve Kurram Agency, Kohat district, Hangu district and Parachinar in Khybar Pakhtunkhua province. All facilities will be free of charge. Land about 27 Canals has been purchased and a model is under construction. Amenities like school, BHU, shops and mosque are integrated in the project.

Beggars Enclave Project.

In partnership with SELAVIP, HF has initiated 40 houses for the poorest of poor to help them out of miseries. The project will be completed by September-2010.

Hussaini Foundation is working with SELAVIP (Latin American, Asian and African Social Housing Service) Chile South America for constructing 40 houses for poorest among poor in the vicinity of Badah town in the district of Larkana Sindh. These one room houses with a toilet will be allocated to 40 families of Jogi caste who have been residing in Badah for the last three decades in straw huts. Most of them work as laborers in the town. 422 members will be provided shelter along with provision for mosque and a school.

SELAVIP has provided initial funding of US$ 18000 and the rest will be contributed by the Hussaini Foundation from local sources.

Project layout had been approved by SELAVIP and Community Development Team of Hussaini Foundation under the supervision of Altaf Bhojani and Ali Anwer have commenced work at site. It is expected that the project will be complete by the end of September at a cost of US$ 40000.